Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences
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Journal

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences


Volume
& Issue

Volume 10, Issue 1


Published
on

March 21, 2025


Pages


DOI

Article

Construction of Time Series Prediction Models for Event Influence and Revenue Growth in Sports Industry

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Authors

Xiaolu Li Affiliation:
College of Physical Education, Yan’an University, Yan’an, Shaanxi, 716000, China.
, Yuze Gao Affiliation:
College of Physical Education, Yan’an University, Yan’an, Shaanxi, 716000, China.
and Renfei Li Affiliation:
College of Physical Education, Yan’an University, Yan’an, Shaanxi, 716000, China.


Abstract

This paper builds up the time series analysis model ARIMA, and proposes the measurement and forecasting method of economic revenue growth in sports industry. In order to study the relationship between the influence of events and revenue growth in the sports industry, the VAR model is used as the framework, and an improved time series forecasting model SVAR is proposed. The SVAR model is used to preprocess the influence of events (TYC) and revenue growth (GDP), and complete the smoothness, cointegration, and vector error tests for the variables TYC and GDP. The relationship between TYC and GDP is analyzed in depth, and in the impulse response analysis, the mutual influence between TYC and GDP shows a positive response in the first shock, maintains a more stable positive influence in the long-term shock, and the influence decreases slowly over time. The unidirectional causality between tournament influence and earnings growth is derived by Granger causality test and corroborated in the variance decomposition, which shows that tournament influence and earnings growth have the highest degree of contribution to themselves, but the contribution to each other is relatively low.


Keywords

ARIMA model, Time series forecasting model, Impulse response function, Variance decomposition, Sports industry, 03C65


Citation

Li, X., Gao, Y., & Li, R. (2025). Construction of time series prediction models for event influence and revenue growth in sports industry. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0569
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