Commercial bank asset-liability management is a method of overall risk control and resource allocation. It has an essential impact on commercial banks’ operational safety and affects the stability of a country's overall financial system due to the domino effect. The article chooses the regression function model to measure the expected default frequency (EDF) in the resource allocation risk of Chinese banks. It analyses the transmission process of the impact of the main macroeconomic variables on the EDF of the resource allocation risk of Chinese commercial banks. The study found that under the significance level of 5%, standardised industrial output growth rate, money supply growth rate, and real estate price index are the main reasons for the changes in bank resource allocation risk EDF.