The article uses the Spss statistical analysis software to establish a multiple linear regression model of short-term stock price changes in domestic agricultural listed companies. It uses a stable time series based on the ARMA model for stable agricultural value-added, fiscal expenditure and market interest rates. The regression method is used to study its impact on the stock price index. Compared with the existing stock forecasting methods, this method has simple data collection and no specific requirements for data selection, and the prediction results have a high degree of fit. Therefore, this method is suitable for most stocks.