Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences
Journal license

Journal

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences


Volume
& Issue

Volume 6, Issue 2


Published
on

December 30, 2021


Pages

165-174


DOI

Article

Back propagation mathematical model for stock price prediction

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Authors

Yanran Ma Affiliation:
School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an International Studies University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710128, P.R. China
, Nan Chen Affiliation:
School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710114, P.R. China
and Han Lv Affiliation:
School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an International Studies University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710128, P.R. China


Abstract

Due to the extremely volatile nature of financial markets, it is commonly accepted that stock price prediction is a task filled with challenges. However, in order to make profits or understand the essence of equity market, numerous market participants or researchers try to forecast stock prices using various statistical, econometric or even neural network models. In this work, we survey and compare the predictive power of five neural network models, namely, back propagation (BP) neural network, radial basis function neural network, general regression neural network, support vector machine regression (SVMR) and least squares support vector machine regression. We apply the five models to make price predictions for three individual stocks, namely, Bank of China, Vanke A and Guizhou Maotai. Adopting mean square error and average absolute percentage error as criteria, we find that BP neural network consistently and robustly outperforms the other four models. Then some theoretical and practical implications have been discussed.


Keywords

back propagation, stock price prediction, radial basis function, support vector machine regression, least squares support vector machine regression, 92B20


Citation

Ma, Y., Chen, N., & Lv, H. (2021). Back propagation mathematical model for stock price prediction. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 6(2), 165–174. https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2021.2.00144

Published by: Engineering Journals

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