The study uses a modified Kalman filter to analyse the impact of innovative human capital’s contribution to China’s economic development. The Kalman filter-STI model is used, and the growth rates of labour force, physical capital and innovative human capital and their contributions to economic growth are further calculated. The analysis employing the Kalman filter-STI model leads to the following results: In 2015, the sum of innovative human capital in each region increased by 6.15% compared to 2010. From 2005 to 2021, the number of scientific and technical papers included in three international systems in China decreased from 45% to 31% in Beijing, from 34% to 21% in Shanghai, and decreased in Jilin and Gansu. Jiangsu Province is the province with the largest increase in the share, from 13% to 26%.