This article uses the theory of probability and statistics to evaluate the thinking dynamics of college students to understand the psychological state of college students. First, the paper uses a web crawler to crawl and analyze the official micro articles. Using the method of probability statistics and the K-mean clustering method, we can understand the psychological state of college students in real time. The results of this experiment show that the current hot topics can be obtained within a certain period by using the statistical method of vocabulary display and clustering. The purpose of this paper is to propose corresponding countermeasures and approaches for the ideological and political work of college graduates. This model has a positive effect on cultivating college students’ values and ways of thinking.