The undergraduate thesis is an important practical teaching part of the undergraduate teaching program, and it is important to manage its quality. In this paper, an online cloud management system for the thesis is designed according to the requirement analysis, and the ARIMA model in time series is used to predict the number of thesis supervisors by the supervisor and give a reminder for the supervisor’s guidance decision. For the risk management of dissertation progress, a Bayesian network-based assessment method is proposed. From the perspective of dissertation similarity, a process of dissertation quality analysis based on the SimHash algorithm is constructed. The average error rate of ARIMA is only 0.190, which is optimized to a certain extent compared with other algorithms. 20 samples of the inference operation results have no sample with the probability of the dissertation progress delay level at High below 40%.