Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences
Journal license

Journal

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences


Volume
& Issue

Volume 9, Issue 1


Published
on

October 4, 2024


Pages


DOI

Article

Construction of Electricity Load Forecasting Model Based on Electricity Data Analysis

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Authors

Yue He Affiliation:
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Co., Ltd. Information & Telecommunication Branch, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050000, China.
, Zhi Zhang Affiliation:
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Co., Ltd. Information & Telecommunication Branch, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050000, China.
, Yongjuan Chang Affiliation:
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Co., Ltd. Information & Telecommunication Branch, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050000, China.
, Yanyan Lu Affiliation:
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Co., Ltd. Information & Telecommunication Branch, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050000, China.
and Xiaoyu Yin Affiliation:
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company Co., Ltd. Information & Telecommunication Branch, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050000, China.


Abstract

This paper builds a time series prediction model of recurrent neural networks based on time series electricity load forecasting. In this paper, the household electricity consumption record data of some residents in urban area S is taken as the research object, and the laws and characteristics of users’ electricity consumption behavior are analyzed in depth based on the real residential electricity consumption data. External factors such as temperature conditions, holidays, etc. The arithmetic cases are also analyzed using real load data sets. In the short-term continuous electricity data analysis, the smaller the time interval is, the closer its corresponding electricity consumption ratio is to 1. There is a negative correlation between long-term continuous electricity consumption. When the temperature is 30~35oC versus -5~0oC, electricity consumption rises significantly. Comparing and analyzing the time series decomposition-RNN with several models, the time series decomposition-RNN model has the highest fit at 10:00-12:00 and 12:00-14:00, and the result verifies the validity of the model proposed in this paper.


Keywords

Time series, Power load forecasting, Power data, Time series decomposition-RNN, 68P30


Citation

He, Y., Zhang, Z., Chang, Y., Lu, Y., & Yin, X. (2024). Construction of electricity load forecasting model based on electricity data analysis. Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-2745

Published by: Engineering Journals

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