With the development of the information age, international teaching cooperation and exchanges have become increasingly frequent, and educational sovereignty and cultural security in higher education international exchanges have gradually become the focus of attention. This paper constructs a multiple regression model of educational sovereignty related to international exchanges, and designs a cultural security risk assessment model in international exchanges by combining fault tree and Bayesian network to prevent cultural invasion. Empirical Analysis is carried out on this basis to explore the factors and preventive measures affecting educational sovereignty and cultural security in higher education international exchanges. In the regression results, the standard regression coefficient of national comprehensive strength is the highest at 0.272, in which the significance of intellectual property rights, educational legislation, educational administration, state authority and national total strength are all less than 0.001. The accuracy rate is more than 90% for identifying cultural security risks. In the research of this paper, the cultural security risk problems can be effectively identified, and the cultural security problems in the international exchange of university education can be improved with practical guarantee.