As part of the supply-side reform, tourism in ethnic areas is increasingly recognized as crucial for achieving shared prosperity. This paper introduces a model from the perspective of tourism human resources designed to predict the demand for such resources. The model aims to inform strategies that support supply-side reforms in tourism for ethnic areas. The GM(1,1) model is constructed with the gray algorithm model, and on the basis of the gray algorithm model, the gray prediction method is effectively combined with the BP neural network prediction method, and the prediction preferences are made according to the variance as well as the prediction method idea of the preferred combination, and the final prediction results are obtained. In the analysis of the tourism human resources profile and demand forecast in Xinjiang, the total number of tourism employment in 2022 accounts for 17.22% of the total number of jobs, and the total number of tourism students in school reaches 6,189. Only 11.66% of tourism human resources are highly educated talents with a bachelor’s degree or above, and the number of personnel with senior titles is only 8.42%, which is obviously low in high-education and high-level talents. Nearly 80% of the personnel in non-tourism-related categories are still there, and the specialization of tourism management personnel is low. The demand for tourism human resources in Xinjiang in 2027 is expected to reach 2.1179 million.