Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education
Journal license

Journal

Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education


Volume
& Issue

Volume 12, Issue 3


Published
on

April 5, 2021


Pages

3494-3504


DOI

Article

Failure Prognostic of Turbofan Engines with Uncertainty Quantification and Explainable AI (XIA)


Authors

Ahmad Kamal Mohd Nora* Affiliation:
Mechanical Department, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, Malaysia
, Srinivasa Rao Pedapati Affiliation:
Mechanical Department, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, Malaysia
and Masdi Muhammad Affiliation:
Mechanical Department, Universiti Teknologi Petronas, Malaysia


Abstract

Deep learning is quickly becoming essential to human ecosystem. However, the opacity of certain deep learning models poses a legal barrier in its adoption for greater purposes. Explainable AI (XAI) is a recent paradigm intended to tackle this issue. It explains the prediction mechanism produced by black box AI models, making it extremely practical for safety, security or financially important decision making. In another aspect, most deep learning studies are based on point estimate prediction with no measure of uncertainty which is vital for decision making. Obviously, these works are not suitable for real world applications. This paper presents a Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation problem for turbofan engines equipped with prognostic explainability and uncertainty quantification. A single input, multi outputs probabilistic Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is employed to predict the RULs distribution of the turbofans and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach is applied to explain the prognostic made. The explainable probabilistic LSTM is thus able to express its confidence in predicting and explains the produced estimation. The performance of the proposed method is comparable to several other published works


Keywords


Citation

Nora, A. K. M., Pedapati, S. R., & Muhammad, M. (2021). Failure prognostic of turbofan engines with uncertainty quantification and explainable AI (XIA). Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education, 12(3), 3494–3504.

Published by: Engineering Journals

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