This article applies multiple nonlinear regression methods to establish a forecasting model for the load characteristics of air conditioning in shopping malls at different times. Based on Python data, determine the functional relationship of refrigerant parameters concerning pressure and temperature. The article uses kernel smoothing estimation technology to calculate the room temperature probability density distribution of users participating in DLC to characterize the user’s comfort. The article’s research results show that the average error between the regression analysis results of refrigerant parameters and the reference value is within 1%. This model is suitable for medium and long-term load forecasting. It has high prediction accuracy for the sudden change trend with a turning point.