This study explores the development status and dissemination effect of Jidong folk songs under the perspective of intangible cultural heritage through VAR modeling, to provide new perspectives and methods for protecting and inheriting traditional folk songs. Using a panel space VAR model, the effects of intangible cultural heritage protection, human capital and physical capital on Jidong folk songs were analyzed. The study first utilizes the VAR model for lag determination and smoothness test, then explores the variables’ interactions through the impulse response analysis path. The results show that human capital and physical capital of intangible cultural heritage protection have a significant positive effect on Jidong folk songs. In the analysis of the spread of Jidong folk songs, multiple linear regression analysis was used, and it was found that familiarity with Jidong folk songs, music appreciation preference and enjoyment after appreciation were the key factors affecting their spread. Protecting intangible cultural heritage promotes the development and dissemination of Jidong folk songs to a certain extent, but some negative impacts require further research and strategy optimization.